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Daniel Encell's
Quarterly Real Estate Update
~ Archives ~

4th Quarter 2008

This is one of those “don’t shoot the messenger” updates. At the time this update is written, there are tremendous challenges facing real estate. An extremely volatile stock market, a stalled economy, and a frozen credit market are all negatively affecting an already fragile real estate market. Overall, sales volume is down $839,145,300 compared to the same period in 2007 for South Santa Barbara County.

The South Coast Market
As expected, the number of sales continued to decline, from 1359 in 2007 to 1048 in 2008, a drop of 23%. However, comparing this year to 2003, 2004 and 2005, when we averaged over 1870 sales for the first three quarters, sales are down over 44%.

Average prices fell from $1,879,523 to $1,636,571, a decline of 13%. Median prices have retreated to 2004 levels, falling from $1,071,000 to $900,000, a decrease of 16%. Perhaps most significant is the steep reduction in the number of sales over $1million. Down from a peak of 956 sales above $1million in 2005, we are at 463 sales so far this year – a decline of 37% from 2007 and over 51% from 2005.

Montecito
The number of sales in Montecito is relatively similar to the rest of South Santa Barbara County, declining 20% from 206 in 2007 to 165. Average prices declined slightly to $3,637,519 while median prices rose to $2,750,000. This is far better than Hope Ranch, where the number of sales is down 39% and average prices have plummeted 24% so far this year.

Summary
Currently, most major stock indexes are down over 30% for the year, and although interest rates are still attractive, loans are more difficult to secure. Hopefully by year’s end the government’s “bailout” plan will provide increased liquidity in the financial markets that will help stabilize the economy, including the residential real estate market.

Despite difficult conditions, I have been able to achieve results by substantially increasing my marketing and adverting budget during a time when others are cutting back drastically. So far this year I have had 25 pending and closed sales, totaling over $96 million. If you are interested in selling your property, please call me at (805) 565-4896. All calls will be confidential.

If you are interested in finding out what has sold in the past year and for how much, we now have the following sales lists available to view: Montecito, Beachfront and Hope Ranch sales. Please click here to request these lists.


 

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