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Daniel Encell's
Quarterly Real Estate Update
~ Archives ~

1st Quarter 2016

2015 in Review
Nationwide, 2015 saw the number of existing-home sales at the highest level since 2006, while the existing-home median prices ended 2015 about 6% above 2014 levels.

In California, the number of sales in 2015 rose about 6.3% compared to 2014, and median home price increased about 6.5%.

Along the South Coast, 2015 saw an increase in inventory levels and sales, and a leveling off of prices. A much-needed increase in New Listings of 8% to 2,588, helped fuel a 13% increase in the Number Sold to 1,829. Median Sale Price inched up 1% to $875,000, while Average Sale Price rose 2% to $1,358,5000. As a result of the increase in the number of sales, Total Sold Volume climbed 15% to $2,484,698,249.

4th Quarter 2015
2015 finished strong for most areas in and around Santa Barbara. Despite a 5% decrease in the Number Sold to 390, the 4th Quarter enjoyed an increase in overall Sold Volume of 16% to $550,714,484. Inventory levels were up slightly with 446 New Listings. Median Sale Price climbed 11% to $907,500, while Average Sale Price skyrocketed 22% to $1,412,088.

Predictions for 2016
Nationwide, limited inventory levels and an anticipated increase in mortgage rates will hamper sales, but prices should continue to slowly increase. California is projected to enjoy a 6.3% increase in sales in 2016, but only a 3.2% increase in prices.

Locally, I expect the leveling off of prices and sales that we have been experiencing these past several months, to continue. However, I am still projecting slight increases in both prices and sales during 2016.

4th Quarter 2015
2015 finished strong for most areas in and around Santa Barbara. Despite a 5% decrease in the Number Sold to 390, the 4th Quarter enjoyed an increase in overall Sold Volume of 16% to $550,714,484. Inventory levels were up slightly with 446 New Listings. Median Sale Price climbed 11% to $907,500, while Average Sale Price skyrocketed 22% to $1,412,088.

Montecito
The 4th Quarter of 2015 was mostly positive for Montecito. Despite a 3% drop in Median Sale Price to $2,522,500 compared to the 4th Quarter of 2014, all other categories were strong. New Listings increased 27% to 74, while the Number Sold jumped 20% to 48. Average Sale Price climbed 19% to $3,418,448. Total Sold Volume soared 43% to $164,085,536!

Evaluating the entire year, the results for 2015 are still largely favorable. New Listings increased 4% to 404. The Number Sold slid 5% to 215. Median Sale Price inched up 2% to $2,720,000, while Average Sale Price climbed 12% to $3,814,010. Total Sold Volume rose 6% to $820,012,262.

Birnam Wood Golf Club
2015 was another strong year for Birnam Wood Golf Club. The Median Sale Price was $4,125,000, and the Average Sale Price was $4,896,786. Of the fourteen homes that sold, five of them were over $5MM: 2059 Boundary Dr. for $2,500,000; 2075 Birnam Wood Dr. for $2,925,000; 467 Crocker Sperry Dr. for $2,950,000; 2019 Boundary Dr. for $3,195,000; 412 Crocker Sperry Dr. for $3,495,000; 1992 Inverness Dr. for $3,550,000; 1950 Boundary Dr. for $3,750,000; 470 Eastgate Ln. for $4,500,000; 2010 Birnam Wood Dr. for $4,500,000, 511 Las Fuentes Dr. for $5,490,440; 1969 Boundary Dr. for $6,000,000; 1917 Boundary Dr. for $7,000,000; 1999 Boundary Dr. for $8,000,000; and 2080 Birnam Wood Dr. for $10,700,000.

There are currently only two active listings in Birnam Wood Golf Club. We need more listings!

San Roque
Similar to the third quarter, the fourth quarter of 2015 was relatively stable for San Roque, compared to the same period in 2014. A slight decline in inventory led to fewer sales, and a small increase in prices. New Listings inched downward 2% to 104, while the Number Sold fell 8% to 91 properties. Median Sale Price bumped up 2% to $1,015,000, and Average Sale Price climbed 5% to $1,197,662. Sold Volume slid 3% to $108,987,305. More inventory of homes for sale would definitely help boost sales for San Roque.

Mesa
The fourth quarter of 2015 had very mixed results for the Mesa, compared to the same period in 2014. MLS statistics for area 20 (west of State St.) show positive gains in both Average Sale Price up 3% to $1,056,744, and Median Sale Price up 10% to $930,000.

However, declining inventory led to a significant decrease in the number of sales, and in overall sales volume. New Listings fell 15% to 85, and the Number Sold dropped 21% to 75 properties. Sold Volume slid 18% to $79,255,827. We need more homes for sale on the Mesa!

Samarkand
The fourth quarter of 2015 had very mixed results for Samarkand, compared to the same period in 2014. MLS statistics for area 20 (west of State St.) show positive gains in both Average Sale Price up 3% to $1,056,744, and Median Sale Price up 10% to $930,000. However, declining inventory led to a significant decrease in the number of sales, and in overall sales volume. New Listings fell 15% to 85, and the Number Sold dropped 21% to 75 properties. Sold Volume slid 18% to $79,255,827. We need more homes for sale in Samarkand!

Upper East
Similar to the third quarter, the fourth quarter of 2015 was relatively stable for the Upper East, compared to the same period in 2014. A slight decline in inventory led to fewer sales, and a small increase in prices.

New Listings inched downward 2% to 104, while the Number Sold fell 8% to 91 properties. Median Sale Price bumped up 2% to $1,015,000, and Average Sale Price climbed 5% to $1,197,662. Sold Volume slid 3% to $108,987,305. More inventory of homes for sale would definitely help boost sales for the Upper East.

Hope Ranch
The 4th Quarter had very mixed results for Hope Ranch, compared to the same time last year. New Listings plummeted 44% to 5, and the Number Sold fell 12% to 7. However, Median Sale Price jumped 82% to $3,750,000, while Average Sale Price skyrocketed 124% to $5,306,928.

Statistics for the entire year of 2015 versus 2014, are also inconsistent. New Listings dropped 22% to 48. Number Sold fell 7% to 35. However, Median Sale Price jumped 32% to $3,350,000, while Average Sale Price leaped 52% to $4,256,636. Total Sold Volume increased 40% to $148,982,290. There are currently only 10 Active Listings in the MLS in Hope Ranch. We need more inventory!

Santa Barbara/Goleta North
Similar to the third quarter, the fourth quarter of 2015 was stronger for MLS area 35 than any other area along the South Coast. Inventory levels, sales, and prices all enjoyed healthy gains.

New Listings jumped 27% to 84, while the Number Sold followed closely, climbing 32% to 86 properties. Median Sale Price rose 10% to $790,500, and Average Sale Price shot up 15% to $823,467. On average, properties sold for 99% of list price. Total Sold Volume skyrocketed 53% to $70,818,195!

Sincerely,

Daniel Encell
Director, Estates Division
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
(805) 565-4896

If you are considering selling, you need a strong agent with precise market knowledge, and superior marketing, advertising, and negotiation skills. In 27 years, I have sold over $1 billion in local real estate. Creative marketing, extensive advertising, and good old fashioned hard work get the best results in any market! If you need real estate assistance, I can help you. Please call me at (805) 565-4896 or email me at danencell@aol.com. All calls will be confidential.
 

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