4th Quarter 2016
Nationwide
Despite a healthy labor market and low interest rates, home sales declined nationwide during the third quarter of 2016. Higher prices and reduced inventory slowed the strong momentum of the first half of the year. Inventory levels are down about 10% compared to a year ago. Median prices are up about 5% nationwide. Continued shortages of both new and existing homes will likely keep prices rising throughout the fourth quarter, and into 2017.
Santa Barbara - South Coast
Unlike other parts of the nation, inventory levels along the South Coast rose a healthy 15% during the third quarter, as Active Listings increased to 1,390. Despite the improved selection, the Number Sold fell 16% to 461. However, we saw an increase in prices as Average Sale Price climbed 9% to $1,332,943 and Median Sale Price jumped 8% to $955,000. On average, properties sold for 96% of their last list price. Overall, Sold Volume slipped 9% to $614,486,662.
Montecito
Montecito also enjoyed an increase in inventory during the third quarter, as Active Listings rose 14% to 285. With a better selection of homes for Buyers to choose from, sales improved, as the Number Sold jumped 29% to 57. Surprisingly, despite strong sales, prices declined sharply, as Average Sale Price fell 25% to $2,855,397 and Median Sale Price slid 14% to $2,200,000. Sold Volume inched down 3% to $162,757,636. On average, properties sold for 92% of their last list price.
Despite a challenging third quarter, I expect the Montecito market to finish 2016 on a positive trend. I think we offer a tremendous value opportunity, compared to other luxury markets around the world
Birnam Wood
Inventory levels continue to hinder sales activity in Birnam Wood Golf Club. Currently, there are only two active residential listings: 457 Crocker Sperry Drive for $3,200,000; and 511 Las Fuentes Drive for $5,495,000. There were two sales during the third quarter: 1988 Inverness Lane for $3,100,000; and 1987 Birnam Wood Drive for $5,050,000. There is currently one property in escrow: 2020 Birnam Wood Drive, listed at $4,500,000. Demand to be within the gates of Birnam Wood continues to be strong. The security and long list of amenities is very popular with Buyers.
Santa Barbara/Goleta North
The third quarter of 2016 was statistically very challenging for the portions of Santa Barbara and Goleta North that make up MLS Area 35. Inventory levels fell, as Total Active Listings dropped 8% to 169. Reduced selection lead to a 44% decline in sales, as the Number Sold declined to 77 properties. Median Sale Price inched down 4% to $770,000, but Average Sale Price rose 11% to $883,181. Sold Volume slipped 37% to $68,005,005. On average, properties sold for 98% of their last list price.
Hope Ranch
For the past several quarters, agents (and Buyers) have been begging for more inventory in Hope Ranch. Well, we finally got some relief. In the third quarter of 2016, inventory levels skyrocketed as Total Active Listings rose 58% to 46. The Number Sold climbed from five to seven properties, compared to the same time last year.
Despite improved sales, both Median and Average Sale Price declined. Sold Volume remained almost unchanged at $21,360,000. On average, properties sold for 95% of their last list price. I expect the improved housing selection in Hope Ranch to lead to increased sales in the fourth quarter, and early 2017.
Mesa
The results of the third quarter were very mixed for the Mesa. Inventory levels rose an impressive 16%, as Total Active Listings reached 255 properties. However, sales plummeted as the Number Sold fell 23% to 92. Frequently, an increase in inventory, coupled with declining sales, results in lower prices. Not so in the Mesa, though, as Median Sale Price climbed 9% to $938,000, and Average Sale Price climbed jumped 11% to $1,084,542. The gains in price did not outweigh the drop in sales, as Sold Volume fell 15% to $99,777,941. On average, properties in the Mesa sold for 97% of their last list price.
Samarkand
The results of the third quarter were very mixed for Samarkand. Inventory levels rose an impressive 16%, as Total Active Listings reached 255 properties. However, sales plummeted as the Number Sold fell 23% to 92. Frequently, an increase in inventory, coupled with declining sales, results in lower prices. Not so in Samarkand, though, as Median Sale Price climbed 9% to $938,000, and Average Sale Price climbed jumped 11% to $1,084,542. The gains in price did not outweigh the drop in sales, as Sold Volume fell 15% to $99,777,941. On average, properties in Samarkand sold for 97% of their last list price.
San Roque
San Roque (MLS Area 15) was the strongest area along the South Coast during the third quarter of 2016. Every single statistical category enjoyed solid gains. Total Active Listings rose 9% to 345. Increased inventory helped the Number Sold bump up 3% to 118 properties. Median Sale Price climbed 6% to $1,127,675, and Average Sale Price skyrocketed 18% to $1,415,803. Sold Volume jumped 22% to $167,064,797. On average, properties in San Roque sold for 97% of their last list price.
Upper East
The Upper East (MLS Area 15) was the strongest area along the South Coast during the third quarter of 2016. Every single statistical category enjoyed solid gains. Total Active Listings rose 9% to 345. Increased inventory helped the Number Sold bump up 3% to 118 properties. Median Sale Price climbed 6% to $1,127,675, and Average Sale Price skyrocketed 18% to $1,415,803. Sold Volume jumped 22% to $167,064,797. On average, properties in the Upper East sold for 97% of their last list price.
Sincerely,
Daniel Encell
Director, Estates Division
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
(805) 565-4896
If you are considering selling, you need a strong agent with precise market knowledge, and superior marketing, advertising, and negotiation skills. In 27 years, I have sold over $1 billion in local real estate. Creative marketing, extensive advertising, and good old fashioned hard work get the best results in any market! If you need real estate assistance, I can help you. Please call me at (805) 565-4896 or email me at danencell@aol.com. All calls will be confidential.
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